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I'd support nerfing traps again, but I've been playing for about 12 years and I'm aware that newer players tend to find the game pretty difficult already, and if the learning curve is too steep then maybe newcomers will get too frustrated. It is hard for me to put myself in the shoes of someone new and figure out what would be balanced for them.
I've been playing for years now and the big thing I've noticed is how incredibly easy the game becomes after setting up a single trap-fence. Usually on the border of a open mire and a coniferous forest or coniferous mire. Or by just keeping a trap-fence around my settlement I often have an elk or reindeer diving straight into one of my traps once every two months.
20 or 25 is where easy mode starts.
I don't know how lucky a person can expect to be in real life with a trap fence, but I agree with you that the game gets too easy from the moment the first elk visits your trap fence.
A problem is that lowering the chance for traps to catch something based on trapping ability hits beginning characters that may be struggling a bit already, while having effectively no effect on established characters.That's why I suggest nerfing trapping against some animals and buffing against others. Also to make trapping more interesting in late game too. I should be a real challenge to lure that elusive bear or wolf finally into a trap.
A different approach might be to reduce the spawning rate based on how long the character has been in the area over time or the amount of game caught based on fauna being scared away/depopulated. This would target established characters rather than beginners.
In my experience, the degree to which traps are "overpowered" depends a lot on luck. I've had characters strategically build a trap fence between an open mire and spruce mire tile after seeing reindeer movement there and end up trapping an entire herd of 9 animals over a few days, to the point where I couldn't preserve all the meat and was pissing off the spirits. On the other hand, I've set many trap fences that never caught a thing.
With my current character I was actually banking on a fruitful trap fence to build up enough wealth in furs to be able to have that character buy some reindeer and test out a nomadic life living off their milk. The combination of nothing in my trap fences and then running into robbers (as I was in the middle of constructing a new trap fence, ironically enough) pretty much ended that plan. Now she's wandering half naked after having all her clothed robbed and shooting arrows with her primitive bow at every grouse that flies by.
Based on many historical reports of various indigenous cultures using fence lines and corrals to send game into trap pits or just driving large herds of animals off cliffs, I'd say there actually is some historical basis for the current success rate of traps.
I think those who want a greater challenge can always downgrade their trapping skill,
not set as many traps or not set them in areas where reindeer were just spotted,
or perhaps redistribute some of the wealth of meat and furs to a local "adopted" village which you could roleplay as your home village.
There are many ways to make this game more challenging but only so many paths to a stable existence.
With my own character, I've honestly started to lose interest after getting robbed and not having any luck with trapping, since it means grinding through a winter in a 1 x 1 cabin until I can work back up to my original plan of trading for reindeer to do something other than the typical build cabin and settle path.